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Possible Opposition Coalition Aspirants Positioning Themselves to replace Tinubu in 2027

Although the 2027 general elections are still nearly two years away, opposition politicians, particularly those seeking to remove President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) from office, have begun preparations in earnest. Last week, major opposition leaders coalesced under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the political party they adopted ahead of the next general elections.

Consisting of familiar faces, including its progenitor, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, and several other politicians who have criss-crossed different parties in recent memory, the coalition threw down the gauntlet for the ruling party. All the figureheads in the movement were aligned by one ambition, and this they succinctly enunciated: get Tinubu out of office in 2027.

While Nigerians wait and the ruling party holds its breath for the coalition to make its move, we examine four key aspirants who might receive the coalition’s nod to confront Tinubu in the 2027 election.

Atiku Abubakar

The former Vice President has become a regular feature in Nigerian presidential election contests. Having finished second in his last attempt, which he contested under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku midwifed this coalition, with the conviction that the alliance offers the opposition the best chance to defeat the incumbent President.

He probably acted upon the popular opinion that divided opposition helped Tinubu’s course in 2023, as they collectively threw away over 14 million votes. In contrast, the eventual winner only recorded over eight million votes. Atiku’s strategy relies on securing a large number of votes from his northern region and a decent showing in the south, where Tinubu hails from.

Although he’s yet to declare his intention publicly, the former Vice President hasn’t ruled himself out either. After the 2023 election, Atiku affirmed that “I’m not going anywhere,” indicating a strong desire to run for the presidency again in 2027, when he will be 80 years old. Some stakeholders have also been advocating that the coalition choose a northern candidate, proposing this as the game-changer, considering the reported growing resentments toward Tinubu from that region.

Peter Obi

Since his defeat in 2023, Obi has remained a consistent voice of strong opposition, strengthening the belief that he will stake another claim in 2027.

The former Labour Party presidential aspirant didn’t even mince words when asked in a recent interview. “I will run as a presidential candidate in 2027,” he replied after being asked if he’s made a deal to be Atiku’s running mate.

The former Anambra State Governor also stated that he’s committed to the coalition’s course, but refused to deny his membership in the Labour Party. This simply means Obi is not putting all his eggs in one basket.

Apart from this suspected double play, Obi has been sending signals to the coalition on why he should be trusted with the ticket. In the same interview referenced above, he reiterated his earlier statement that he’s content with serving one term as president.

This is undoubtedly a deft move to counter the southern sentiment that Tinubu should be allowed to complete his eight-year term in office. While his remarks may resonate with some people, other stakeholders have insisted that a fellow southerner stands no chance against the incumbent President.

Another challenge Obi’s one-term pledge portends is that it leaves Atiku at a big disadvantage due to the age factor. By 2031, the former Vice President will be 84 years old and public sentiment might be swayed against an ageing president. In all, one thing is clear at this moment: Obi’s eyes are firmly on the coalition ticket, and he’s not making a secret out of it.

Rotimi Amaechi

Another person who has made no secret of his intention to contest the coalition presidential ticket is Rotimi Amaechi, a former Governor of Rivers State and Transportation Minister under the immediate past government of Muhammadu Buhari.

Amaechi is one of the vociferous opposition voices to President Tinubu, a man he ran against for the APC presidential ticket in 2022. Though Tinubu recorded a wide margin victory in the contest, Amaechi gave a good account of himself, finishing a distant second but defeating the likes of then-incumbent Vice President Prof. Yemi Osinbajo and Senate President, Ahmad Lawan.

This impressive outing may have strengthened the former Minister’s resolve and conviction to put himself forward as a viable alternative to Tinubu in 2027.

He has since dumped his old stomping ground for the coalition. Like Obi, Amaechi has also expressed readiness to be a one-term president to balance out the unwritten agreement of southern and northern rotational presidency.

However, political analysts have observed that Amaechi’s emergence is also a decoy for him to regain political relevance, especially in Rivers, where the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, Nyesom Wike, is currently calling the shots

Though former allies, Wike stopped Amaechi from installing his predecessor in 2015, ever since, the PDP chieftain has exerted his influence and continues to dominate Rivers politics.

But it was his alliance with candidate Tinubu in 2023 that further weakened Amechi’s base. With his ministerial power gone and no real influence in power decisions in the oil-rich state, the former Transportation Minister saw the coalition as an opportunity to reestablish himself and, perhaps, also pay Tinubu back in his coin, all in one fell swoop.

Meanwhile, another school of thought believes Atiku clinching the coalition ticket is inevitable, therefore, leaving the likes of Amaechi and Obi to jostle for the vice presidential slot.

Nasir El Rufai

Former Kaduna State Governor Nasiru El-Rufai’s name has also been mentioned as a potential candidate for the coalition’s presidential ticket, although he has yet to express an interest publicly.

However, the former FCT Minister has all the motivation in the world to give it a try. It’s an open secret that El-Rufai played a role, the significance of which can only be determined by people with knowledge of the inner workings of the APC, in Tinubu’s emergence as the APC candidate in 2022.

He also stood by the former Lagos State Governor in the general election, even though he failed to deliver the majority of votes in his state. However, things have since gone south between the duo.

With Tinubu making an about-turn after nominating El-Rufai for a ministerial position, the former Kaduna Governor may be out to extract his own pound of flesh. At the same time, there’s a little matter of Governor Uba Sani, his successor in Kaduna State.

Having felt betrayed by a man whom he helped to power in 2023, El-Rufai might also pull his weight to settle a score with Sani by ensuring he doesn’t get re-elected and this might be a great factor to fight for the ADC ticket.

Local politics aside, words from the grapevine have it that the former FCT Minister is eyeing the presidency in 2031, so he won’t turn down the chance that makes the dream realisable four years earlier than he envisaged.

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I’ll back only candidates who support Tinubu in FCT Polls – Wike

Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, says he will support only candidates who support President Bola Tinubu’s vision, irrespective of political party, in the FCT area councils’ election scheduled for February 21.

Wike made the statement in Abuja on Saturday night during Senator Sandy Onor’s 60th birthday, a celebration of six decades of scholarship, leadership, service, and meaningful impact.

The Minister, who said he owed no one an apology for supporting Tinubu, promised to back any candidate aligned with the President.

“We have the FCT Area Council election coming up on February 21, and I have a duty to support any candidate who supports President Tinubu to win.

“It is also my duty to ensure that any candidate who is not supporting Tinubu does not win in the election, and I owe no apology on my stand,”* Wike said.

Speaking about the celebrant, Wike described Onor as a “credible ally, a trustworthy friend, and good brother.”

According to him, Onor is not only a friend but a reliable one, even in times of trouble: “I will continue to be with you and work with you, because I know even if I am not alive today, you will not abandon my family.”

Reading the citation for the celebrant, Prof. Anthony Eyang said Onor, born on Feb. 14, 1966, in Ikom, Cross River, was raised in an environment rooted in community values, discipline, and faith.

Eyang noted that Onor’s journey, from the lecture halls of the University of Calabar to the Nigerian Senate and onward to Cross River politics, “reflects a life devoted to learning, leadership, and the advancement of society.”

Earlier, Chairman of the planning committee, Senator Philip Aduda, said the event was a thanksgiving for God’s faithfulness in Onor’s life, both as an academic and a politician.

Former Governor of Benue, Mr Samuel Otom, who stood in for the Chairman of the Occasion, Dr Okezie Ikpeazu, former Governor of Abia State and Ambassador-designate, described Onor as an “icon,” a great Nigerian, and a man prepared and fit for leadership. He also called Onor a “good man.”

Former Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Chief Kalu Agabi (SAN), described the celebrant as courageous and intelligent. “I love Sen. Sandy Onor because he is not one of those who stigmatise the constitution as a product of the military,” he said.

Head of Department of History and International Studies, University of Calabar, Prof. Dave Imbua, presented a Festschrift—a book written by scholars in honour of the celebrant, stating that Onor has remained a notable historian among academics.

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US sanctions 8 Nigerians over links to Boko Haram, And Other Crimes

us embassy

The United States has frozen the assets and properties of eight Nigerians accused of having links to the Islamic sect, Boko Haram, and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.

This was contained in a 3,000-page document dated February 10, released by the United States Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control and sighted by the correspondent on Monday.

The document also identified individuals sanctioned for cybercrime-related offences and other security threats. The pronouncement comes on the heels of recent recommendations by the US Congress for visa bans and asset freezes on persons and groups accused of violations of religious freedom and persecution of Christians in Nigeria.

The former Governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwankwaso; the Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria; and Miyetti Allah Kautal were recommended by United States lawmakers for visa bans and asset freezes.

The OFAC document, titled “Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List,” detailed individuals of other nationalities and entities whose assets had been frozen, serving as a reference tool. It also provided notice of actions taken against Specially Designated Nationals, whose property and interests were blocked as part of counter-terrorism efforts.

According to OFAC, the move forms part of its broader efforts to block the property and interests of Specially Designated Nationals and prevent financial dealings with them.

“This publication of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control is designed as a reference tool providing actual notice of actions by OFAC with respect to Specially Designated Nationals and other persons (which term includes both individuals and entities) whose property is blocked, to assist the public in complying with the various sanctions programmes administered by OFAC,” the agency said.

Among those listed is Salih Yusuf Adamu, also known as Salihu Yusuf, born on August 23, 1990, in Nigeria. Yusuf was identified as having ties to Boko Haram and was reported to hold a Nigerian passport.

Yusuf was among six Nigerians convicted in 2022 for setting up a Boko Haram cell in the United Arab Emirates to raise funds for insurgents in Nigeria. The six men were convicted in the UAE for attempting to send $782,000 from Dubai to Nigeria.

Another individual, Babestan Oluwole Ademulero, born on March 4, 1953, in Nigeria, was designated under SDNTK sanctions. He appeared under several aliases, including Wole A. Babestan and Olatunde Irewole Shofeso.

Also designated was Abu Abdullah ibn Umar Al-Barnawi, also known as Ba Idrisa. He was reportedly born between 1989 and 1994 in Maiduguri, Borno State, and was flagged under terrorism-related sanctions.

Abu Musab Al-Barnawi, also referred to as Habib Yusuf, was listed with varying birth years between 1990 and 1995. He was identified as a Boko Haram leader and sanctioned under terrorism provisions.

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Even with 10 million votes, Obi still wouldn’t have won the 2023 Elections — Lai Mohammed

Lekki Toll Gate

Former Minister of Information and Culture, Lai Mohammed, has insisted that Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi would not have won the 2023 presidential election even if he had secured 10 million votes.

Mohammed explained this while appearing on Edmund Obilo’s State Affairs Podcast, that Obi still could not get “one-quarter of votes cast in 25 states,” a constitutional requirement for winning the presidency.

“Even if Obi had got 10million votes, he wouldn’t have won. This is because he still could not get one-quarter of the votes cast in 25 states. It is even on record that he could not provide agents at about 40,000 polling units,” the ex-minister said.

Speaking on factors that shaped the 2023 election, especially in Lagos state, Mohammed said, “For the first time in the history of politics in Nigeria, ethnicity and religion played a very frontal role.”

He added that the #EndSARS protests had an impact, particularly in Lagos, where many youths “wanted a pound of flesh,” which did not help the APC or Bola Tinubu.

Mohammed further emphasized the difference between presidential elections and governorship or National Assembly contests.

“I am of the belief that the presidential elections are not as personal as the governorships or national assemblies. In presidential elections, a man might not be affiliated with any of the candidates. But when it comes to governorships, it is particular and peculiar because the candidate lives in the state,” he said.

On Tinubu’s leadership, Mohammed stated that the president does not withdraw support from allies after electoral defeats.

“Asiwaju is not the kind of person who will drop his support for you because you have lost the election. No, he will still encourage you,” he said, adding that Tinubu has often been underestimated due to his warm and charismatic personality.

“He is strategic and really understands Nigerian politics better than anybody you might think of,” Mohammed said.

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